2012 Home Prices Off to a Rocky Start

Press release from the issuing company

Tuesday, March 27th, 2012

Data through January 2012, released today by S&P Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller[1] Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, showed annual declines of 3.9% and 3.8% for the 10- and 20-City Composites, respectively. Both composites saw price declines of 0.8% in the month of January. Sixteen of 19 MSAs also saw home prices decrease over the month; only Miami, Phoenix and Washington DC home prices went up versusDecember 2011. (Due to delays in data reporting, the January 2012 index values for Charlotte are not included in this month's release). Eight MSAs and both Composites posted new index lows in January. The 10- and 20-City Composites recorded marginal improvements in annual returns over December 2011 when they each posted -4.1%. In addition to the Composites,Dallas, Denver, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, San Diego, Seattle, Tampa and Washington DC saw their annual rates improve compared to December; while nine of the MSAs saw their annual returns worsen compared to what was reported forDecember 2011. Denver, Detroit and Phoenix were the only cities to post positive annual growth rates of +0.2%, +1.7% and +1.3%, respectively. Atlanta again posted the lowest annual (and only double-digit negative) return at -14.8%.

In January 2012, the 10- and 20-City Composites recorded annual returns of -3.9% and -3.8%, respectively.

"Despite some positive economic signs, home prices continued to drop. The 10- and 20- City Composites and eight cities –Atlanta, Chicago, Cleveland, Las Vegas, New York, Portland, Seattle and Tampa – made  new lows," says David  M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. "Detroit and Phoenix, two cities that have suffered massive price declines, plus Denver, saw increasing prices versus January 2011. The 10-City Composite was down 3.9% and the 20-City was down 3.8% compared to January 2011.

"Due to delays in reporting for Mecklenburg County, we did not publish a January index level for Charlotte, North Carolina.  There was not enough January data to publish an accurate index level this month.  We are not sure of the reasons for the delays, but do expect to see the data with next month's release.  We did include data we received from Gaston County, NC, andYork County, SC, in the calculation of the 20-City Composite.

"Atlanta continues to stand out in terms of recent relative weakness.  It was down 2.1% over the month, and has fallen by a cumulative 19.7% over the last six months. It also posted the worst annual return, down 14.8%.  Seven of the cities were down by 1.0% or more over the month.  With the new lows, both Composites are now 34.4% off their relative 2006 peaks."

As of January 2012, average home prices across the United States are back to the levels where they were nearly a decade ago – in early 2003. Measured from their June/July 2006 peaks through January 2012, the peak-to-current decline for both the 10-City Composite and 20-City Composite is 34.4%. January's levels are new lows for both Composites in the current housing cycle.

In January 2012, Denver, Detroit and Phoenix were the only MSAs to post positive annual returns. Month-over-month, Miami,Phoenix and Washington DC were the only cities that recorded positive gains -- up 0.6%, 0.9% and 0.7% in January 2012, respectively. Both the 10-City and 20-City Composites were down 0.8% from their December 2011 levels. Eights MSAs (Atlanta,Chicago, Cleveland, Las Vegas, New York, Portland, Seattle and Tampa) and both Composites posted new index lows inJanuary 2012. Atlanta, Cleveland, Detroit and Las Vegas continue to have average home prices below their January 2000levels.

The table below summarizes the results for January 2012. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are revised for the 24 prior months, based on the receipt of additional source data. More than 25 years of history for these data series is available, and can be accessed in full by going to www.homeprice.standardandpoors.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

January 2012

January '12/December '11

December/November

 

Metropolitan Area

Level

Change (%)

Change (%)

1-Year Change (%)

Atlanta

85.49

-2.1%

-1.8%

-14.8%

Boston

147.89

-0.4%

-1.2%

-2.8%

Charlotte

--

--

-0.5%

--

Chicago

108.15

-1.9%

-2.0%

-6.6%

Cleveland

95.83

-2.0%

-1.1%

-3.3%

Dallas

112.70

-0.4%

-0.7%

-1.2%

Denver

122.92

-0.6%

-0.9%

0.2%

Detroit

68.81

-1.1%

-3.1%

1.7%

Las Vegas

90.25

-0.5%

-0.8%

-9.0%

Los Angeles

160.76

-0.8%

-1.1%

-5.4%

Miami

138.59

0.6%

0.2%

-1.9%

Minneapolis

111.42

-0.8%

-1.2%

-1.8%

New York

161.16

-0.8%

-1.4%

-2.9%

Phoenix

102.84

0.9%

0.8%

1.3%

Portland

129.96

-2.1%

-0.4%

-4.3%

San Diego

148.74

-1.1%

-0.7%

-5.3%

San Francisco

125.47

-2.5%

-0.8%

-5.9%

Seattle

130.03

-0.7%

-1.3%

-4.0%

Tampa

124.14

-0.8%

-0.2%

-3.8%

Washington

180.21

0.7%

-1.2%

-0.6%

Composite-10

148.40

-0.8%

-1.2%

-3.9%

Composite-20

135.46

-0.8%

-1.1%

-3.8%

Source: S&P Indices and Fiserv

 

 

 

 

Data through January 2012

 

 

 

 

Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.

A summary of the monthly changes using the seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data can be found in the table below.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

January '12/December '11 Change (%)

December/November Change (%)

 

Metropolitan Area

NSA

SA

NSA

SA

 

Atlanta

-2.1%

-1.1%

-1.8%

-1.5%

 

Boston

-0.4%

0.0%

-1.2%

-0.7%

 

Charlotte

--

--

-0.5%

0.1%

 

Chicago

-1.9%

-0.5%

-2.0%

-1.0%

 

Cleveland

-2.0%

-0.7%

-1.1%

-0.1%

 

Dallas

-0.4%

0.4%

-0.7%

0.2%

 

Denver

-0.6%

0.7%

-0.9%

0.1%

 

Detroit

-1.1%

-0.4%

-3.1%

-2.5%

 

Las Vegas

-0.5%

0.0%

-0.8%

-0.5%

 

Los Angeles

-0.8%

-0.2%

-1.1%

-0.5%

 

Miami

0.6%

1.2%

0.2%

0.3%

 

Minneapolis

-0.8%

1.1%

-1.2%

0.0%

 

New York

-0.8%

-0.4%

-1.4%

-1.0%

 

Phoenix

0.9%

2.0%

0.8%

1.4%

 

Portland

-2.1%

-0.6%

-0.4%

0.0%

 

San Diego

-1.1%

-0.3%

-0.7%

-0.1%

 

San Francisco

-2.5%

-0.6%

-0.8%

0.0%

 

Seattle

-0.7%

0.8%

-1.3%

-0.1%

 

Tampa

-0.8%

0.4%

-0.2%

0.3%

 

Washington

0.7%

1.7%

-1.2%

-0.5%

 

Composite-10

-0.8%

-0.1%

-1.2%

-0.6%

 

Composite-20

-0.8%

0.0%

-1.1%

-0.5%

 

Source: S&P Indices and Fiserv

 

 

 

 

 

Data through January 2012