S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the July 2024 results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices. The leading measure of U.S. home prices reached a new all-time high with a decelerating trend for July 2024. More than 27 years of history are available for the data series and can be accessed in full by going to https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-family/indicators/sp-corelogic-case-shiller/.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.0% annual gain for July, down from a 5.5% annual gain in the previous month. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 6.8%, down from a 7.4% annual increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 5.9%, dropping from a 6.5% increase in the previous month. New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with an 8.8% increase in July, followed by Las Vegas and Los Angeles with annual increases of 8.2% and 7.2%, respectively. Portland held the lowest rank for the smallest year-over-year growth, notching the same 0.8% annual increase in July as last month.

MONTH-OVER-MONTH

The U.S. National Index, the 20-City Composite, and the 10-City Composite upward trends continued to decelerate from last month, with pre-seasonality adjustment increases of 0.1% for the national index, and both the 20-City and 10-City Composites remained unchanged on the month.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.2%, while both the 20-City and 10-City Composite reported a monthly rise of 0.3%.

ANALYSIS

"Accounting for seasonality of home purchases, we have witnessed 14 consecutive record highs in our National Index," says Brian D. Luke, CFA, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets. "While the S&P 500 has achieved thirty-nine record highs and the S&P GSCI Gold TR hit thirty-five record highs, housing is following a similar trajectory. The growth has come at a cost, with all but two markets decelerating last month, eight markets seeing monthly declines, and the slowest annual growth nationally in 2024. Overall, the indices continue to grow at a rate that exceeds long-run averages after accounting for inflation."

Luke continued, "We continue to observe out-performance in most low-price tiers in the market on a 3 and 5-year horizon. The low-price tier of Tampa was the best performing market nationally with 5-year performance of 88%. The New York market was the best market annually, posting a gain of 8.9%. New York's low-tier index, which include home values up to $533,000, helped drive that growth with 10.8% annual gains. Over 5-years, markets such as New York and Atlanta, saw low price tiered indices outperforming their market by as much as 20% and 18%, respectively. The relative outperformance of low-price tiered indices has both benefited first time homebuyers as well as made it more difficult to for those looking for a stater home. The opposite is happening in California which has the most expensive high-price tiers in the nation, all well over $1 million. The rich are getting richer in San Diego, Los Angeles, and San Francisco where their high price-tiered indices outperformed on a 1- and 3-year basis.

Regionally, the Northeast remains the best performing market, with New York the top performer for 3-months running, followed by the Midwest region. All markets in the Northeast and Midwest recorded an all-time high. The south reported the slowest gains regionally but includes five of the seven best performing markets since 2020," according to Luke.

Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.

Table 2 below summarizes the results for July 2024. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices could be revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.

Table 3 below shows a summary of the monthly changes using the seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data. Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.

For more information about S&P Dow Jones Indices, please visit www.spglobal.com/spdji.