The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.4 percent in July 2023 to 105.8 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.7 percent in June. The LEI is down 4.0 percent over the six-month period between January and July 2023—a slight deterioration from its 3.7 percent contraction over the previous six months (July 2022 to January 2023).

"The US LEI—which tracks where the economy is heading—fell for the sixteenth consecutive month in July, signaling the outlook remains highly uncertain" said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. "On the other hand, the coincident index (CEI)—which tracks where economic activity stands right now—has continued to grow slowly but inconsistently, with three of the past six months not changing and the rest increasing. As such, the CEI is signaling that we are currently still in a favorable growth environment. However, in July, weak new orders, high interest rates, a dip in consumer perceptions of the outlook for business conditions, and decreasing hours worked in manufacturing fueled the leading indicator's 0.4 percent decline. The leading index continues to suggest that economic activity is likely to decelerate and descend into mild contraction in the months ahead. The Conference Board now forecasts a short and shallow recession in the Q4 2023 to Q1 2024 timespan."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. improved by 0.4 percent in July 2023 to 110.5 (2016=100), after no change in June. The CEI is now up 0.7 percent over the six-month period between January and July 2023—down slightly from the 0.9 percent growth rate recorded over the previous six months. The CEI's component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing trade and sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. Industrial production erased some of the losses reported in June and May and made the strongest positive contribution to July's coincident index, followed by income, employment, and sales.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. was unchanged in both July and June of 2023, at 118.3 (2016 = 100). The LAG is up slightly by 0.1 percent over the six-month period from January and July 2023, down dramatically from its 2.5 percent growth over the previous six months.

The next release is scheduled for Thursday, September 21, 2023, at 10 A.M. ET.