Workers in the private sector likely will see the overall rate of wage growth remain at or close to its recent pace in the coming months, according to the revised fourth quarter Wage Trend Indicator (WTI) released today by Bloomberg BNA, a leading publisher of specialized news and information.

The index fell to 98.38 (second quarter 1976 = 100) from 98.52 in the third quarter. If confirmed by the final fourth quarter reading, the decline would be the second in a row. Over the past five quarters, the WTI has fluctuated within a narrow range from 98.38 to 98.67.

"The latest WTI is reflecting mixed labor conditions and the uncertainty surrounding political decision-making in Washington, D.C.," economist Kathryn Kobe, a consultant who maintains and helped develop Bloomberg BNA's WTI database, said. "The potential loss of business if the economy goes over the fiscal cliff may be weighing on employers' wage and hiring decisions," Kobesaid.

Kobe said she expects little or no change in annual wage gains in the private sector from the 1.8 percent increase over the year ended in the third quarter, as measured by the Department of Labor's employment cost index (ECI). The WTI does not forecast the magnitude of wage growth, only the direction.

Over its history, the WTI has predicted a turning point in wage trends six to nine months before the trends are apparent in the ECI. A sustained increase in the WTI forecasts greater pressure to raise private sector wages, while a sustained decline is predictive of a deceleration in the rate of wage increases.

Reflecting mixed economic conditions, three of the WTI's seven components made negative contributions to the revised fourth quarter reading, while three factors were positive and one was neutral.