The Conference Board Employment Trends Index Increased in November

Staff Report

Tuesday, December 6th, 2016

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index increased again in November, after increasing in October. The index now stands at 129.96, up from 128.95 in October. The change represents a 2.7 percent gain in the ETI compared to a year ago.

"The Employment Trends Index is showing some signs of acceleration, suggesting that employment growth will not slow down further in the coming months," said Gad Levanon, Chief Economist, North America, at The Conference Board. "Moderate employment growth will be enough to make the labor market even tighter, leading to more visible acceleration in wages and inflation."

November's improvement in the ETI was fueled by positive contributions from six of the eight components. In order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest, these were: Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers, Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now, Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales, Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry, and Industrial Production.

The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight labor-market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

The eight labor-market indicators aggregated into the Employment Trends Index include:

  • Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get" (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey)

  • Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)

  • Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now ( National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)

  • Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)

  • Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers (BLS)

  • Job Openings (BLS)

  • Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)

  • Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)