The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(LEI)for theU.S. increased 0.2 percent in September to 116.4 (2004 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in August, and a 0.6 percent increase in July.

Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board: "September data shows moderating growth in both the LEI and the CEI. The weaknesses among the leading indicator components have become slightly more widespread in September. Moreover, the CEI suggests current economic conditions have been slow, with weak gains in all four components over the past six months. The slow pace in the LEI suggests a growing chance that this sluggish economy is going to be here for a while."

SaysKen Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: "The LEI is pointing to soft economic conditions through the end of 2011. There is a risk that already low confidence – consumer, business and investor – could weaken further, putting downward pressure on demand and tipping the economy into recession. The probability of a downturn starting over the next few months remains at about 50 percent."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index(CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in September to 103.3 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent decline in August, and a 0.2 percent increase in July.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index(LAG) increased 0.2 percent in September to 110.4 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in August, and a 0.3 percent increase in July.